OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
Probability
68¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$174.45
Liquidity
$1.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the official closing price of the abbreviated sessionTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 68¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the official closing price of the abbreviated sessionTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 14200.9h
- 07:04SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 68¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.0pp at May 16, 09:00 UTC (to 69¢).
Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
- 19:00 · -3.0pp → 69¢
- 17:00 · -3.0pp → 69¢
- 15:00 · -3.0pp → 69¢
- 14:00 · -3.0pp → 69¢
- 12:00 · -3.0pp → 69¢
- 11:00 · -3.0pp → 69¢
- 09:00 · -3.0pp → 69¢
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 69¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
4Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ipo Reason
IPO markets are Business / corporate-finance events.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:04:25 GMT, YES is priced at 68% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -5.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2027 (2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$174.45 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $96.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.