All-Deviation
0x4fadc974fb701b133055866022c89c5e0f7a1480
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
195
Open notional
$5.2K
Total PnL
$-885.42
Realised
$116.99
Win rate
63%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 195- YES
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
1000 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$854.97
$75.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
1000 shares @ 76.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$835.00
$70.00
- NO
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1000 shares @ 84.0¢·now 75.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$758.40
$-81.60
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
750 shares @ 91.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$678.37
$-6.97
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1632 shares @ 32.8¢·now 31.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$514.89
$-21.18
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
700 shares @ 40.8¢·now 44.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$311.50
$25.50
- NO
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
244 shares @ 92.1¢·now 94.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$231.14
$6.74
- NO
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
166 shares @ 82.6¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$137.17
$-0.17
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
60 shares @ 71.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$52.76
$9.55
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
80 shares @ 50.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp May 26, 2026$50.00
$10.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.46May 18, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.20May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$88.00May 17, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$128.80May 17, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$89.80May 17, 01:18 UTC
- REWARD$1.53May 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$89.90May 16, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$90.00May 16, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$135.07May 16, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.86May 16, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$59.79May 16, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.40May 16, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$22.95May 16, 15:49 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.19May 16, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.72May 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$24.35May 15, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$45.51May 15, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$20.24May 15, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$135.00May 15, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$17.53May 15, 19:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $49.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 00:01 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".