Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

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  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 10.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution. A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify. A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students. A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students. A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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