Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 13pp over 24h

  Now 28¢; flat in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 11.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if nocries signs with a professional Counter-Strike 2 organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A professional Counter-Strike 2 organization is any organization that fields a paid Counter-Strike 2 roster in official CS2 competitions. “Signs” refers to nocries entering into a paid contract with an organization to compete in Counter-Strike 2 for that organization. Trials or other relationships that do not include a signed professional playing contract will not count. Sponsorship agreements or other contracts that do not pay nocries to compete in Counter-Strike 2 for a specific organization will also not count. A signed professional contract between nocries and a qualifying Counter-Strike 2 organization within this market’s timeframe will qualify even if its effective start date is after June 30, 2026. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the team involved and nocries, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.