Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?
Probability
72¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+15.5pp
24h Vol
$1.7K
Liquidity
$2.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 72¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 67¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5465.9h
Price movement
+15.5pp over the last 24h, now 72¢.
Biggest hourly move: -30.0pp at May 15, 23:00 UTC (to 42¢).
Show top 8 of 53 hourly moves
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 56¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · -24.0pp → 56¢
- May 16, 20:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 44¢
- May 16, 07:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 61¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · -25.5pp → 46¢
- May 16, 02:00 UTC · -26.5pp → 45¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -24.0pp → 48¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · -30.0pp → 42¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered. An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
manchester cityReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "manchester city" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:03:23 GMT, YES is priced at 72% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +15.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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