SportsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prelims)

Probability

51¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$32.4K

Liquidity

$67.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Link
ufc.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-17.5pp 7d
1007550250
51¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:01 UTC
updated 06:01:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-01Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 31, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 310.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.

Biggest hourly move: -21.0pp at May 14, 00:00 UTC (to 48¢).

Show top 8 of 56 hourly moves
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · +19.5pp → 68¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · +19.5pp → 68¢
  • May 16, 07:00 UTC · +19.5pp → 68¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 48¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 48¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 48¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 48¢
  • May 13, 19:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 48¢
updated 06:01:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:01:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventUFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prelims)
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Jake Matthews" if Jake Matthews is officially declared the winner of the fight against Muslim Salikhov at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, scheduled for May 30, 2026. It will resolve to "Muslim Salikhov" if Muslim Salikhov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ufc

Reason

UFC — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prelims)"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:01:28 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -17.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$32.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $49.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $67.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket