Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Probability
51¢
1h
-22.5pp
24h
-22.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$30.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 23pp over 24h
Now 51¢; -22.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved down 22.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 56¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 308.9h
- 07:04SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 22.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
-22.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Biggest hourly move: +23.0pp at May 17, 06:00 UTC (to 73¢).
Show top 8 of 60 hourly moves
- 05:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 03:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 01:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 23:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 21:00 · +21.5pp → 72¢
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · +23.0pp → 73¢
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · +23.0pp → 73¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 70¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jake Matthews and Muslim Salikhov at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, scheduled for May 30, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:04:49 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -22.5pp in the last 24 hours, -22.5pp in the last hour, and +14.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $30.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.