Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
51¢
1h
-4.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$21.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+17.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 51¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $21.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 308.9h
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at May 16, 22:00 UTC (to 70¢).
Show top 8 of 60 hourly moves
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 32¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 70¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 70¢
- May 16, 23:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 70¢
- May 16, 22:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 70¢
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 50¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 50¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 50¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jake Matthews and Muslim Salikhov at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, scheduled for May 30, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the fight be won by submission?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:04:46 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.0pp in the last 24 hours, -4.0pp in the last hour, and +17.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $21.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.