Fight to Go the Distance?
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$47.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 308.9h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at May 16, 22:00 UTC (to 64¢).
Show top 8 of 23 hourly moves
- 07:00 · +6.5pp → 51¢
- 05:00 · +6.0pp → 50¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 36¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 36¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +12.5pp → 56¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · +12.0pp → 56¢
- May 16, 23:00 UTC · +12.0pp → 56¢
- May 16, 22:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 64¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prelims)
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O/U 2.5 Rounds
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jake Matthews and Muslim Salikhov at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, scheduled for May 30, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Fight to Go the Distance?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:05:16 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +7.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $47.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.