Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/us-agrees-to-a-new-trade-deal-with-mexico-before-2027 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/us-agrees-to-a-new-trade-deal-with-mexico-before-2027/markdown.

PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Creator

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?

Probability

14¢

+0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$9.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Scanner Market Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.0pp 7d

14¢

May 11, 2026, 14:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 13:51 UTC

updated 13:51:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T13-51Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

01
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 5434.1h
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at May 14, 20:00 UTC (to 14¢).

Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves

May 14, 20:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 14¢
May 14, 17:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 14¢
May 14, 16:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 14¢
May 14, 14:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 14¢
May 14, 12:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 14¢
May 14, 10:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 14¢
May 14, 08:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 14¢
May 14, 07:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 14¢

updated 13:51:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 13:51:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:51:56 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -6.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

17 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket