PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 7, 2026
Creator

Will Armenian National Congress win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$4.4K

Liquidity

$39.9K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
elections.am
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:06 UTC
updated 08:06:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-06Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 7, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 471.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 08:06:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 08:06:27 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventArmenia Parliamentary Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

parliamentary election

Reason

Parliamentary election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Armenian National Congress win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:06:27 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 7, 2026 (2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $13.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $39.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket