PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$5.00

Liquidity

$5.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=disputed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA DISPUTED

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
disputed
Resolution source
Primary
White House
Link
whitehouse.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: disputed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.1pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 11, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 16:24 UTC
updated 16:24:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T16-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 295.6h

    LOW
  • 16:24Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 16:24:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 16:24:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWill Trump sign an executive order on...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 16:24:40 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $22.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket