Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
Probability
94¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$22.6K
Liquidity
$8.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 60h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 21, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 94¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.8× turnover
$22.6k traded against $8.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 60h.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $8.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 60 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 21, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 21, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 59.9h
- 12:04SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 60h.
Price movement
+7.0pp over the last 24h, now 94¢.
Biggest hourly move: +62.5pp at May 16, 14:00 UTC (to 90¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +15.5pp → 94¢
- May 17, 12:00 UTC · +16.5pp → 87¢
- May 17, 11:00 UTC · +22.5pp → 90¢
- May 17, 09:00 UTC · +26.5pp → 91¢
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 90¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · +26.5pp → 91¢
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · +32.5pp → 89¢
- May 16, 14:00 UTC · +62.5pp → 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the package counter in the specified livestream displays a figure equal to or higher than the specified figure at any point prior to May 21, 2026, 10:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the 8-hour period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the 8-hour period elapses, resolution will be based on the highest visible package count prior to the end of the demonstration. The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:04:12 GMT, YES is priced at 94% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +7.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$22.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $68.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $8.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.