SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 12, 2026
Creator

Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Probability

16¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
wimbledon.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (7.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
16¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:11 UTC
updated 07:28:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-28Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 7.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 12, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1312.5h

    LOW
  • 07:28Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.1pp at May 14, 09:00 UTC (to 15¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • May 17, 06:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 16¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 16¢
  • May 17, 04:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 16¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 15¢
updated 07:28:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:28:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Wimbledon (https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

wimbledon

Reason

Wimbledon — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:28:43 GMT, YES is priced at 16% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 12, 2026 (2026-07-12T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $266.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket