PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 21, 2026
Creator

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$159.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=disputed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA DISPUTED

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 21, 2026
UMA status
disputed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
registraduria.gov.co)
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: disputed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:25 UTC
updated 08:25:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-25Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 21, 14:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 821.6h

    LOW
  • 08:25Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 08:25:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:25:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventColombia Presidential Election
Category · Politics

Market Description

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:25:16 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 21, 2026 (2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $708.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $159.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket