Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability
20¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$4.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 40h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 20¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 40h. No explicit resolution source listed.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 40 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 40.0h
- 08:02SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 40h. No explicit resolution source listed.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Biggest hourly move: -40.5pp at May 15, 17:00 UTC (to 25¢).
Show top 8 of 60 hourly moves
- May 16, 19:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 13¢
- May 16, 17:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 14¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 19¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 22¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -30.5pp → 20¢
- May 15, 17:00 UTC · -40.5pp → 25¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 16¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · -21.5pp → 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
"The Boys: Season 5" is scheduled to air weekly, beginning April 8, 2026, and ending with the finale on May 20, 2026 This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Boys: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Boys: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Boys: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Boys: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Boys: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "The Boys: Season 5" is released.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
the boys: seasonReason
TV-series plot / character markets are Entertainment.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:02:42 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +2.0pp in the last hour, and -11.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 20, 2026 (2026-05-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $32.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
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