EntertainmentExpires May 20, 2026
Creator

Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Probability

12¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

+1.7pp

24h Vol

$416.53

Liquidity

$1.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 42h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 20, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (6.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.1pp 7d
1007550250
12¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:24 UTC
updated 06:24:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 12¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 42h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.7¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 42 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 41.6h

    HIGH
  • 06:24Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 42h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+1.7pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

Biggest hourly move: +20.1pp at 15:00 (to 24¢).

Show top 8 of 61 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · +13.7pp → 16¢
  • 19:00 · +18.1pp → 22¢
  • 17:00 · +14.3pp → 17¢
  • 15:00 · +20.1pp → 24¢
  • 14:00 · +14.1pp → 18¢
  • 12:00 · +13.9pp → 18¢
  • 11:00 · +15.8pp → 20¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · -15.2pp → 4¢
updated 06:24:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 06:24:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

"The Boys: Season 5" is scheduled to air weekly, beginning April 8, 2026, and ending with the finale on May 20, 2026 This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Boys: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Boys: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Boys: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Boys: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Boys: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "The Boys: Season 5" is released.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Entertainment

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

the boys: season

Reason

TV-series plot / character markets are Entertainment.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:24:26 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.7pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and -1.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 20, 2026 (2026-05-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$416.53 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $47.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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