Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$17.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5440.8h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.0pp at May 15, 10:00 UTC (to 8¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- May 16, 08:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
- May 16, 07:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
- May 16, 05:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
- May 16, 02:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent). When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe. The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
mayoral electionReason
Mayoral / city-election markets are Politics. Also guards against the esports LEC token inside 'election'.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:09:52 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $58.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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