Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-michael-minogue-win-the-2026-massachusetts-governor-republican-primary-election renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-michael-minogue-win-the-2026-massachusetts-governor-republican-primary-election/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 1, 2026

Creator

Will Michael Minogue win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?

Probability

83¢

+1.0pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Scanner Market Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Sep 1, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.0pp 7d

83¢

May 11, 2026, 12:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 11:35 UTC

updated 11:35:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T11-35Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 83¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
03
Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Sep 1, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 2532.4h
LOW
11:35Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 83¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.5pp at May 15, 13:00 UTC (to 78¢).

Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves

02:00 · +6.5pp → 85¢
May 16, 09:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 80¢
May 16, 00:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 80¢
May 15, 13:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 78¢
May 15, 11:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 79¢
May 15, 08:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 78¢
May 15, 05:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 78¢
May 15, 03:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 79¢

updated 11:35:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 11:35:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventMassachusetts Governor Republican Primary Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts, scheduled to take place on September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Michael Minogue win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:35:24 GMT, YES is priced at 83% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and -3.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket