Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$37.00
Liquidity
$891.55
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1020.5h
- 11:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.
Biggest hourly move: +27.5pp at 19:00 (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
- 00:00 · +14.0pp → 25¢
- 23:00 · +16.0pp → 27¢
- 21:00 · +14.5pp → 25¢
- 20:00 · +18.0pp → 28¢
- 19:00 · +27.5pp → 38¢
- 17:00 · +23.0pp → 34¢
- 16:00 · +19.5pp → 30¢
- May 16, 23:00 UTC · +16.5pp → 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”. Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:32:57 GMT, YES is priced at 18% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +3.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$37.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $891.55. Spread between best bid and best ask: 9.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.