PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 30, 2026
Creator

Will Nationalist Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$3.1K

Liquidity

$38.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.0pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:03 UTC
updated 06:03:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 281.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 06:03 (to 5¢).

Show 5 hourly moves
  • 06:03 · -3.5pp → 5¢
  • 03:00 · -3.1pp → 5¢
  • 02:00 · -3.2pp → 5¢
  • 00:00 · -3.2pp → 5¢
  • 23:00 · -3.4pp → 5¢
updated 06:03:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 06:03:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMalta Parliamentary Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives (parliament of Malta) as a result of the 2026 Maltese general election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will primarily be ranked by the number of seats won. In the event of a tie, the party with the greater number of valid votes will rank higher. If a tie persists, the party whose name appears first in alphabetical order will rank higher. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election, not any coalition it may be a part of. This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

general election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Nationalist Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:03:11 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -3.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $35.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $38.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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