Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
Probability
97¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.4pp
24h Vol
$2.7K
Liquidity
$386.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 97¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 23:55 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5465.8h
Price movement
-2.4pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market to predict who will win a women's tennis Calendar Grand Slam in 2026. This market resolves to the single woman player who wins the Women's Singles titles at all four Grand Slam tournaments in 2026. The relevant 2026 Grand Slams are the Women's Singles tournaments in the 2026 Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open, and Wimbledon. For the purpose of this market, a tournament victory is valid regardless of whether the final was won via a walkover, a mid-match retirement, or a standard completed match. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka does not win the 2026 Australian Open) this market will resolve immediately to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for any listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka wins the 2026 Australian Open but loses in the first round of 2026 French Open) this market will resolve immediately to "None". Otherwise, this market will resolve when the results of the final 2026 Grand Slam are official. If any of the 2026 Grand Slam Women' Singles Tournaments are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “None”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the organizers of the Grand Slam tournaments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
wimbledonReason
Wimbledon — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:05:23 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T23:55:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.4M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $386.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
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