Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 16.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Feb 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 6850.2h
- 13:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
13- 7¢0.0
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
Crypto · Vol $0.00
- 5¢0.0
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B?
Crypto · Vol $0.00
- 47¢+3.0
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
Crypto · Vol $0.00
- 39¢+3.0
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?
Crypto · Vol $0.00
- 5¢0.0
Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more?
Crypto · Vol $0.00
- 6¢0.0
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B?
Crypto · Vol $0.00
- 9¢0.0
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?
Crypto · Vol $0.00
- 1¢0.0
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Crypto · Vol $5.8M
- 0¢-2.6
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?
Crypto · Vol $495.6K
- 0¢-15.3
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?
Crypto · Vol $392.1K
- 100¢+0.4
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?
Crypto · Vol $369.0K
- 90¢-2.8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?
Crypto · Vol $357.0K
- 100¢0.0
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?
Crypto · Vol $340.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
defiReason
Question text contains "defi" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:46:23 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Feb 28, 2027 (2027-02-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $441.12. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 16.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.