PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires
Creator

Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

Probability

17¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$55.31

Liquidity

$19.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.5pp 7d
1007550250
17¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:07 UTC
updated 08:07:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-07Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $19.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow
No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.
updated 08:07:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 08:07:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mayoral election

Reason

Mayoral / city-election markets are Politics. Also guards against the esports LEC token inside 'election'.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:07:11 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$55.31 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $28.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $19.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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