Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$99.12
Liquidity
$1.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe data available at that timeTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-22.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 4¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe data available at that timeTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 303.0h
- 08:59SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.6pp at 21:00 (to 4¢).
Show top 8 of 66 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -29.6pp → 4¢
- 20:00 · -28.5pp → 5¢
- 19:00 · -28.0pp → 5¢
- 17:00 · -28.5pp → 5¢
- 15:00 · -28.0pp → 5¢
- 14:00 · -27.5pp → 5¢
- 12:00 · -26.0pp → 6¢
- 11:00 · -27.0pp → 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn B200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:59:15 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -22.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$99.12 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $340.24. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.