PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?

Probability

81¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$250.12

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.0pp 7d
1007550250
81¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:59 UTC
updated 08:59:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-59Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 14.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5439.0h

    LOW
  • 08:59Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.5pp at May 16, 11:00 UTC (to 81¢).

Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
  • 02:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
  • 00:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
  • 23:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
  • 21:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
  • 20:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
  • 19:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
  • 17:00 · -4.5pp → 81¢
updated 08:59:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 08:59:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?
Category · Politics

Market Description

On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

epstein

Reason

Epstein-case markets — DOJ / FBI / Congressional record release. Politics, not Unclassified.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:59:05 GMT, YES is priced at 81% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $250.12. Spread between best bid and best ask: 14.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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