Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$12.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 10, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in theLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 10, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in theLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 10, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 19545.7h
- 14:20SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at May 14, 09:00 UTC (to 9¢).
Show 4 hourly moves
- May 16, 22:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 3¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · +3.3pp → 4¢
- May 15, 19:00 UTC · +3.3pp → 4¢
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
presidential electionReason
Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 14:20:41 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 10, 2028 (2028-08-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $609.91. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $12.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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