EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

-0.2pp

24h Vol

$75.97

Liquidity

$4.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026
Link
the-numbers.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-15.4pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:49 UTC
updated 09:49:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-49Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5438.2h

    LOW
  • 09:49Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -39.6pp at May 14, 05:00 UTC (to 8¢).

Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
  • 23:00 · -26.1pp → 3¢
  • May 15, 09:00 UTC · +27.8pp → 30¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · -30.8pp → 17¢
  • May 14, 21:00 UTC · -36.2pp → 9¢
  • May 14, 20:00 UTC · -37.1pp → 9¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · -31.8pp → 8¢
  • May 14, 06:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 9¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -39.6pp → 8¢
updated 09:49:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 09:49:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Gamma category hint

Matched term

Entertainment

Reason

No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Entertainment".

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening week in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:49:14 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and -15.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$75.97 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $570.54. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

12 wallets
Open on Polymarket