Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" this week?
Probability
4¢
1h
-1.3pp
24h
-7.3pp
24h Vol
$353.99
Liquidity
$97.62
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-56.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 4¢; -1.3pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 06:01SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- May 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 30h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-7.3pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -53.5pp at 19:00 (to 8¢).
Show top 8 of 71 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -51.5pp → 11¢
- 20:00 · -53.0pp → 9¢
- 19:00 · -53.5pp → 8¢
- 17:00 · -49.5pp → 8¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · -51.0pp → 6¢
- May 16, 21:00 UTC · -50.0pp → 10¢
- May 16, 20:00 UTC · -50.5pp → 10¢
- May 16, 13:00 UTC · -49.5pp → 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" this week?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:01:47 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.3pp in the last 24 hours, -1.3pp in the last hour, and -56.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$353.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $635.07. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $97.62. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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