Will two people dissent the June Fed decision?
Probability
8¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 8¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 711.9h
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -11.0pp at May 16, 06:00 UTC (to 7¢).
Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -9.5pp → 8¢
- 07:00 · -10.5pp → 7¢
- 05:00 · -10.5pp → 7¢
- 19:00 · -10.0pp → 7¢
- 17:00 · -10.5pp → 7¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 7¢
- May 16, 07:00 UTC · -10.5pp → 7¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · -11.0pp → 7¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on June 17, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
fed chairReason
Fed Chair confirmation / nomination is a political question (Senate confirmation), not Macro.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will two people dissent the June Fed decision?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:04:43 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and -11.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 17, 2026 (2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $154.81. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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