Organic-Mandolin
0x418614b0d795855b5467674c88d271e5a0f5ee77
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$306.81
Total PnL
$-113.88
Realised
$0.86
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Kash Patel out by June 30?
128 shares @ 39.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$89.09
$39.09
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
38 shares @ 39.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$35.37
$20.37
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
120 shares @ 20.8¢·now 24.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$29.51
$4.51
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
91 shares @ 32.9¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$25.50
$-4.50
- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
44 shares @ 34.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.21
$2.21
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
89 shares @ 16.8¢·now 18.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$16.29
$1.29
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
86 shares @ 17.5¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
55 shares @ 27.3¢·now 24.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.71
$-1.29
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
33 shares @ 60.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.17
$-8.83
- NO
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.54
$5.54
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 13, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYAWS service disrupted by June 30?$10.22May 12, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$10.28May 12, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?$5.13May 12, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$10.10May 12, 19:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$5.45May 12, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$8.82May 12, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$24.39May 12, 19:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 6, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $15.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".