Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$87.97
Liquidity
$7.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 41¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $7.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5440.5h
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: -36.0pp at May 15, 00:00 UTC (to 28¢).
Show top 8 of 59 hourly moves
- May 15, 07:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 35¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 35¢
- May 15, 03:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 35¢
- May 15, 02:00 UTC · -26.0pp → 38¢
- May 15, 00:00 UTC · -36.0pp → 28¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · -31.5pp → 28¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · -32.0pp → 28¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · -33.5pp → 26¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format. Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar. A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar. Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
openaiReason
Question text contains "openai" — matched the AI keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:31:34 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -7.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$87.97 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $52.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.