AWS service disrupted by June 30?
Probability
39¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$114.44
Liquidity
$2.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe first such classification publishedTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 39¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe first such classification publishedTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1021.8h
- 10:11SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.
Biggest hourly move: -14.5pp at 17:00 (to 36¢).
Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
- 07:00 · -12.5pp → 35¢
- 05:00 · -12.5pp → 35¢
- 03:00 · -12.5pp → 35¢
- 02:00 · -13.0pp → 35¢
- 00:00 · -10.5pp → 36¢
- 23:00 · -12.5pp → 35¢
- 17:00 · -14.5pp → 36¢
- 14:00 · -12.0pp → 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "AWS service disrupted by June 30?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:11:21 GMT, YES is priced at 39% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -1.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$114.44 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.