MacroMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 16, 2026
Creator

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Probability

80¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$548.02

Liquidity

$10.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
boj.or.jp
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.9pp 7d
1007550250
80¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:05 UTC
updated 09:05:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-05Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $10.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 16, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 686.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 80¢.

Biggest hourly move: +16.3pp at May 16, 17:00 UTC (to 80¢).

Show top 8 of 69 hourly moves
  • May 16, 17:00 UTC · +16.3pp → 80¢
  • May 16, 15:00 UTC · +13.9pp → 80¢
  • May 16, 11:00 UTC · +13.6pp → 80¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · +13.3pp → 79¢
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 77¢
  • May 15, 18:00 UTC · +13.3pp → 77¢
  • May 15, 08:00 UTC · +16.2pp → 76¢
  • May 15, 07:00 UTC · +15.2pp → 75¢
updated 09:05:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 09:05:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventBank of Japan Decision in June?
Category · Macro

Market Description

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Macro

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

interest rates

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "interest rates" — matched the Macro rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:05:26 GMT, YES is priced at 80% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +16.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 16, 2026 (2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$548.02 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $28.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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