Epstein client list released by June 30?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$573.62
Liquidity
$43.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.
Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Primarycredible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Primarycredible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1022.3h
- 09:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Active signals
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities. A document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity. The following will not qualify: - Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity. - Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein. - Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
epsteinReason
Epstein-case markets — DOJ / FBI / Congressional record release. Politics, not Unclassified.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Epstein client list released by June 30?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:40:48 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$573.62 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $780.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $43.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
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