MacroExpires Jun 17, 2026
Creator

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

Probability

12¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.3pp

24h Vol

$2.8K

Liquidity

$17.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Federal Reserve
Link
federalreserve.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-9.0pp 7d
1007550250
12¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:03 UTC
updated 07:04:47 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-04Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $17.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 712.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.3pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

Biggest hourly move: -8.8pp at May 14, 04:00 UTC (to 13¢).

Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
  • May 15, 15:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 15¢
  • May 14, 13:00 UTC · +6.4pp → 16¢
  • May 14, 12:00 UTC · +6.1pp → 16¢
  • May 14, 11:00 UTC · +5.8pp → 16¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · -8.8pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 06:00 UTC · -8.8pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -8.7pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · -8.8pp → 13¢
updated 07:04:47 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:04:47 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventFed rate cut by...?
Category · Macro

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Macro

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

fed

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "fed" — matched the Macro rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:04:47 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -9.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 17, 2026 (2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$2.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $95.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket