MacroExpires Jun 17, 2026
Creator

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Probability

2¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.2pp

24h Vol

$2.0K

Liquidity

$86.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Federal Reserve
Link
federalreserve.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.6pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:01 UTC
updated 06:01:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-01Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 714.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+1.2pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 06:01:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:01:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same eventFed rate cut by...?
Category · Macro

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Macro

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

fed

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "fed" — matched the Macro rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:01:30 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.2pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.6pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 17, 2026 (2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$2.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $277.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $86.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket