Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$83.33
Liquidity
$27.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 9, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4913.0h
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.1pp at May 16, 04:00 UTC (to 1¢).
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
9- 1¢+0.1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $518.7K
- 98¢-0.3
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $293.4K
- 1¢+0.5
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $291.0K
- 0¢-0.2
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $195.1K
- 63¢+4.0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Macro · Vol $182.0K
- 0¢0.0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $177.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
fedReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "fed" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:58:06 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.2pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 9, 2026 (2026-12-09T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$83.33 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $27.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Jolly-Spokeswoman2.6K
- Taut-Dogwood2.1K
- Growing-Way821
- Sardonic-Cue386
- Novel-Chitchat333