Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$8.0K
Liquidity
$34.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.1pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
fedReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "fed" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:01:22 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$8.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $34.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
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