Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50?
Probability
81¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5465.4h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at May 15, 08:00 UTC (to 86¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 13:00 · -4.0pp → 82¢
- May 17, 11:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 82¢
- May 16, 21:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 85¢
- May 15, 22:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 85¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 86¢
- May 15, 07:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 86¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 86¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 81¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
market capReason
Market-cap ranking markets are Business.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:35:45 GMT, YES is priced at 81% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 1, 2027 (2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.