SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 24, 2026
Creator

Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

Probability

19¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-20.5pp

24h Vol

$19.00

Liquidity

$1.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-26.5pp 7d
1007550250
19¢
May 11, 2026, 11:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 10:43 UTC
updated 10:44:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T10-44Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 21pp over 24h

    Now 19¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 24¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 24, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 877.3h

    LOW

Price movement

-20.5pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.

Biggest hourly move: -37.0pp at May 15, 05:00 UTC (to 14¢).

Show top 8 of 61 hourly moves
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · +34.0pp → 48¢
  • May 17, 02:00 UTC · +33.5pp → 48¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · +35.5pp → 51¢
  • May 15, 05:00 UTC · -37.0pp → 14¢
  • May 15, 03:00 UTC · -34.0pp → 14¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · -36.0pp → 14¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · -31.5pp → 14¢
  • May 14, 06:00 UTC · -34.0pp → 12¢
updated 10:44:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 10:44:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 NBA Draft: 4th Overall Pick
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is drafted fourth overall in the 2026 NBA Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2026 NBA Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by July 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:44:01 GMT, YES is priced at 19% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -20.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -26.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 24, 2026 (2026-06-24T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$19.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $365.88. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

8 wallets
Open on Polymarket