EntertainmentExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$4.8K

Liquidity

$11.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
billboard.com
Link
billboard.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.9pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:22 UTC
updated 06:23:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-23Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

Biggest hourly move: +10.8pp at 21:00 (to 98¢).

Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · +10.8pp → 98¢
  • 20:00 · +9.8pp → 98¢
  • 19:00 · +7.2pp → 98¢
  • 17:00 · +6.7pp → 99¢
  • May 15, 08:00 UTC · -9.9pp → 88¢
  • May 15, 07:00 UTC · -8.7pp → 89¢
  • May 15, 05:00 UTC · -6.3pp → 91¢
  • May 15, 04:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 92¢
updated 06:23:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:23:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Drake's new album "ICEMAN" is expected to release in 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake's next officially released album debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart for its first charted week following release. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve as soon as Billboard publishes the first chart week in which the album appears. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

billboard

Reason

Question text contains "billboard" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:23:01 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $29.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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