Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 12, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-YeLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 12, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-YeLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 12, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5728.0h
- 08:01SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.8pp at May 14, 15:00 UTC (to 9¢).
Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
- May 14, 17:00 UTC · -6.4pp → 9¢
- May 14, 15:00 UTC · -8.8pp → 9¢
- May 14, 14:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 9¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 9¢
- May 14, 11:00 UTC · -6.2pp → 9¢
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · -7.1pp → 10¢
- May 14, 06:00 UTC · -7.2pp → 10¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
11- 10¢+0.4
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.50% and 2.24%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+0.3
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 77¢-5.5
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?
Macro · Vol $1.72
- 4¢0.0
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 0.75%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-1.7
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99%?
Macro · Vol $25.00
- 3¢+0.4
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 0.75% and 1.49%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 1¢+0.1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $515.5K
- 98¢-0.3
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $293.0K
- 1¢+0.5
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $292.7K
- 0¢-0.2
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $210.2K
- 57¢0.0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Macro · Vol $188.5K
Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
inflationReason
Question text contains "inflation" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:01:20 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -6.8pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 12, 2027 (2027-01-12T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $517.19. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.