PoliticsExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Will Joel Harris win Tie Down Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?

Probability

3¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$16.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.3pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 11, 2026, 11:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 10:52 UTC
updated 10:53:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T10-53Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $16.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.2pp at May 14, 04:00 UTC (to 3¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · -7.2pp → 3¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · -7.1pp → 3¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · -7.1pp → 3¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · -7.1pp → 3¢
updated 10:53:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 10:53:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventThe American Rodeo Championship: Tie Down Roping Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve in favor of the rider who is named the winner of Tie Down Roping at the 2026 The American Rodeo Championship Weekend 2026, per the rules of American Rodeo. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If a rider is disqualified or otherwise ineligible to participate in the listed event per the rules of American Rodeo, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 The American Rodeo Championship Weekend 2026 are canceled, postponed or no winner has been declared by May 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from American Rodeo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

harris

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "harris" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Joel Harris win Tie Down Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:53:04 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -7.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $16.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

10 wallets
Open on Polymarket