GeopoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 4, 2026
Creator

Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.4pp

24h

-3.3pp

24h Vol

$1.1K

Liquidity

$18.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.9pp 7d
1007550250
7¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:24 UTC
updated 06:24:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 7¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Oct 4, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3329.6h

    LOW

Price movement

-3.3pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: +6.6pp at 19:00 (to 10¢).

Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · +6.2pp → 10¢
  • 21:00 · +6.3pp → 10¢
  • 20:00 · +6.5pp → 10¢
  • 19:00 · +6.6pp → 10¢
  • 17:00 · +6.1pp → 10¢
  • 15:00 · +6.1pp → 10¢
  • 14:00 · +6.1pp → 10¢
  • 09:00 · +6.5pp → 10¢
updated 06:24:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:24:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSão Paulo Governor Election Winner
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

nato

Reason

Question text contains "nato" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:24:26 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Oct 4, 2026 (2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$1.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $18.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket