Will Laurence Louie win Top Chef Season 23?
Probability
10¢
1h
-1.1pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (14.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 10¢; -1.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 14.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (14.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1763.3h
- 12:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: +6.0pp at 12:00 (to 10¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +6.0pp → 10¢
- 10:00 · +5.3pp → 10¢
- 07:00 · +4.7pp → 11¢
- 05:00 · +4.5pp → 10¢
- 23:00 · +4.6pp → 10¢
- 18:00 · +4.0pp → 10¢
- May 16, 09:00 UTC · +4.6pp → 9¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · +4.2pp → 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the contestant who wins Top Chef Season 23. If Top Chef Season 23 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Top Chef Season 23 has otherwise not concluded by July 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will remain open until the conclusion of the season. The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the final episode of Top Chef Season 23.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
enceReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "ence" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Laurence Louie win Top Chef Season 23?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:40:28 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.5pp in the last 24 hours, -1.1pp in the last hour, and +7.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 31, 2026 (2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 14.2¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.