BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires —
Creator

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Probability

74¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$95.85

Liquidity

$22.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
1007550250
74¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:10 UTC
updated 06:11:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-11Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 74¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $22.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 74¢.

Biggest hourly move: -6.5pp at May 16, 00:00 UTC (to 71¢).

Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
  • 00:00 · -3.0pp → 74¢
  • 19:00 · -4.0pp → 73¢
  • May 16, 10:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 74¢
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 74¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 74¢
  • May 16, 07:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 74¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 74¢
  • May 16, 00:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 71¢
updated 06:11:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:11:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventWho will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Transactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify. Announcements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify. If no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by June 30 2027". Resolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Business

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

acquire

Reason

Company acquisition markets are Business.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:11:01 GMT, YES is priced at 74% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$95.85 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $455.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $22.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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