PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 7, 2028
Creator

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Probability

60¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$35.00

Liquidity

$184.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 7, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Associated Press
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
1007550250
60¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:01 UTC
updated 06:01:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-01Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Nov 7, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 21690.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 60¢.

updated 06:01:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:01:45 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:01:45 GMT, YES is priced at 60% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 7, 2028 (2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$35.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $754.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $184.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket