GeopoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Probability

42¢

1h

+3.1pp

24h

-2.4pp

24h Vol

$7.7K

Liquidity

$27.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-16.3pp 7d
1007550250
42¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:13 UTC
updated 06:13:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-13Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 42¢; +3.1pp in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1025.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.4pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.

Biggest hourly move: -14.4pp at May 13, 19:00 UTC (to 44¢).

Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · -14.4pp → 38¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · -14.4pp → 38¢
  • May 15, 18:00 UTC · -14.3pp → 39¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · -13.4pp → 45¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · -13.6pp → 44¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 44¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · -14.1pp → 44¢
  • May 13, 19:00 UTC · -14.4pp → 44¢
updated 06:13:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 06:13:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

iran

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "iran" — matched the Geopolitics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:13:31 GMT, YES is priced at 42% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.4pp in the last 24 hours, +3.1pp in the last hour, and -16.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$7.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $698.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $27.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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