Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 26, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 185.0h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.7pp at May 14, 21:00 UTC (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -4.1pp → 1¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -4.1pp → 1¢
- May 15, 16:00 UTC · -4.1pp → 1¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -4.1pp → 1¢
- May 15, 03:00 UTC · -4.2pp → 1¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · -4.7pp → 1¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · -4.3pp → 1¢
- May 14, 14:00 UTC · -4.2pp → 1¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
republicanReason
Question text contains "republican" — matched the Politics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:02:07 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and -2.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 26, 2026 (2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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